Good Sunday evening!
It still looks like wintry weather is in store for tonight and tomorrow morning, potentially hampering the morning commute tomorrow…but, if you have seen some of the snow parts of New Jersey and Pennsylvania received -- in upwards of 10" in places -- and have concluded we should expect similar accumulations, you may be disappointed. The energy that brought all of that snow sailed out to sea south of Connecticut.
Here's what we can expect: From now until early afternoon Monday, we will likely have a wintry mix causing slick travel. Already developing around the New Haven, Bridgeport, Waterbury areas, snow will continue to move northeast, spreading over the entire state the wee hours. We anticipate mainly light snow at the onset before a transition to more of a sleet/freezing rain precipitation occurs. This transition will start in southwestern Connecticut neat the shoreline by around midnight, slowly moving north during the wee hours of the morning. By sunrise, we fully expect to have either sleet or freezing rain over the entire state, with snow pushed up into northern New England. By the time most of us are awake and beginning our Monday rituals between 6 and 8 AM, temperatures will be going above 32°F near the Shoreline, changing the icing over to sprinkles and mist along the I-95 corridor. Regardless, roads will still be slippery and/or slushy in many places, slowing us down. You will want to allot extra time for this commute – perhaps a few extra minutes to as much as double the amount of time.
So how much snow and ice are we expecting? Right now, it looks like much of the state will receive 1"-2" of snow that will get covered by heavier sleet and freezing rain. There may be a few pockets with more, perhaps 3" in a few areas away from the Sound.
It may be tough for Mother Nature to scour all of the cold air from the valleys Monday and ice may linger into the afternoon in some inland valley locations. We think for most of us, however, Monday afternoon will bring just plain spotty rain through sunset with highs in the 30s inland, 40s closer to the Shoreline.
Tuesday will be colder, starting off with dry weather. Temperatures will stay in the 30s to – perhaps 40°. The jet stream will remain just to our south and does bear watching: one of our models is suggesting another "impulse" will be available to give another batch of wintry precipitation Tuesday. And, if this scenario were to unfold, it would be a light to moderate snowfall favoring the Shoreline for higher accumulations. Another trusted model keeps that energy to the south and more aggressively sends an Arctic front our way with scattered snow showers. Either way, we have to include at least a remote chance for snow in the forecast for Tuesday.
Arctic air settles into the state Wednesday and Thursday with a couple of cold days with lows in the teens and highs in the 20s and low-30s. We anticipate some moderation to the air Friday as the core of the cold air shifts east. Cloudy, milder weather is in the forecast for Saturday as a clipper moves across northern New England, sparing us its precipitation while giving us the benefit of its wind pattern along its southern periphery.
So that's the latest. If we see changes, we'll let you know; in the meantime, be safe if you have to navigate icy roads!
Meteorologist Mike Cameron