AXNT20 KNHC 080605
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE IKE MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR
CABO LUCRECIA AT 08/0145 UTC. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE AT 
08/0600 UTC IS NEAR 21.2N 76.6W...OR JUST INLAND NEAR THE 
NORTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCE OF LAS TUNAS.
THIS POSITION IS 85 MILES/135 KM EAST OF CAMAGUEY. HURRICANE IKE 
IS MOVING WEST 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
945 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 105 KT WITH GUSTS 
TO 130 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY 
UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 75W AND 
76W. OTHER STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 
THE JAMACIA CHANNEL TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE SOUTHERN 
PART OF THE CROOKED ISLAND AND THE RAGGED ISLAND RANGE...AND 
EVEN BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA. STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FROM 17.5N TO 18.5N BETWEEN 69W AND 
70W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 18N71W...BOTH ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM 17N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
TO 28N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 65W AND 82W. THE UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW AWAY FROM IKE IS EVIDENT. A HINT
OF MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...EITHER WITH A CENTER OR
A TROUGH...IS FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W. THE UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF HONDURAS WEST OF 80W
IS NORTHERLY. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM IKE COVERS 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 14N EAST OF 75W. MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS TROUGH HAS BEEN IN THE MIDDLE OF HURRICANE 
IKE AND NOW WHAT USED TO BE JOSEPHINE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
 
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W SOUTH OF 12N MOVING 
WEST 15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY. ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS TO THE EAST OF THIS WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. APPARENT MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF
THE AREA OF THIS WAVE...SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 66W AND 72W.

...THE ITCZ...

19N16W...ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 10N30W TO 9N39W
10N48W 10N56W BEYOND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN SOUTHERN COASTAL SIERRA LEONE. SCATTERED 
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N
TO 10N BETWEEN 34W AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 
COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 9W AND 20W...FROM 12N TO 
14N BETWEEN 24W AND 27W...FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 27W AND 33W...
AND ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 86W FROM 26N SOUTHWARD INTO THE 
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNDER THIS RIDGE...AND JUST EAST OF
A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 26N TO THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA...JUST WEST OF THE RIDGE. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
IS ALONG 25N95W 20N98W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER IS APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD 20N100W IN 
INTERIOR MEXICO. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND 94W...IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND 
POSSIBLY NEAR SOME AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A HINT OF MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...EITHER WITH A CENTER OR
A TROUGH...IS FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W. THE UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF HONDURAS WEST OF 80W
IS NORTHERLY. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM IKE COVERS 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF 14N EAST OF 75W. MIDDLE TO UPPER 
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING 
WEST 15 KT. APPARENT MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE 
AREA OF THIS WAVE...SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 66W AND 72W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N49W CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 21N54W 16N58W TO 14N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS ARE FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W. A MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N64W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.
OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W.
THE 1012 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF JOSEPHINE IS NEAR 
18N43W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 20N 
BETWEEN 41W AND 43W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N18W 
TO 31N21W 29N28W TO 25N32W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
30 NM TO 60 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD 
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N20W TO 30N23W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC 
WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 30W AND 
65W...AROUND A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 36N49W.

$$
MT