HARTFORD, Conn. -- University of Connecticut economists predicted Monday the state's recession would likely bottom out sometime in the fourth quarter of this year or first quarter of 2010.

Depending on how bad the economy gets, they predicted, the state could ultimately lose between 78,000 to 110,000 jobs during the downturn.

It could take years to recoup those job losses, warned Steven Lanza, executive editor of The Connecticut Economy, a quarterly UConn journal. University economists unveiled the journal's summer issue Monday at a briefing on its findings.

"After you bottom out, then the big job is to work your way back to where you were when things started getting tough out there," Lanza said.

"I am optimistic," said Rick Ross, of Worcester, Mass. "I think things are getting better."

During the recession of the 1990s, the state lost about 156,000 jobs and it took 11 years to recover them. In the 2000 recession, Connecticut lost 58,000 jobs, taking seven years to rebound.

Lanza said Monday that there are signs we are crawling out of the recession. He said industry, manufacturing and the stock market are coming back, and unemployment claims are passed their peak.

But, he said, there's still a long way to go when it comes to home prices, which have dropped nationwide by 32 percent.

Two top state lawmakers, who attended the briefing, said they still have a lot of work to do before an agreement can be reached on a new state budget. The General Assembly ended its regular session last Wednesday without passing a tax-and-spending plan for the next two fiscal years.

Lawmakers are currently in special session, but rank-and-file members won't return to the capitol until budget negotiators work out a plan for legislators to vote on.

Legislative budget committee leaders and members of the General Assembly and governor's budget staffs are supposed to negotiate a deal. No meetings were held Monday, and it was unclear when they would return to the table. The meetings are held behind closed doors.

House Majority Leader Denise Merrill, D-Mansfield, and House Minority Leader Lawrence Cafero, R-Norwalk, said Democrats and Republicans continue to disagree on the levels of spending cuts and borrowing, as well as whether tax increases are needed.

Cafero said the GOP remains opposed to raising taxes, but he predicted higher taxes would ultimately be needed in 2012 and 2013 when the state doesn't have federal stimulus funds to fill in the revenue gaps.

Merrill said she believes some tax increases will be needed to get through the current financial crisis, but that Democrats want to avoid cuts that hurt the state's strategic investments, such as higher education.