Strong thunderstorms and a big chill in the forecast
Precisioncast model run Saturday evening.
Storm Outlook. Photo Source: Storm Prediction Center
Hail Outlook. Photo Source: Storm Prediction Center
Wind Outlook. Photo Source: Storm Prediction Center
Tornado Outlook. Photo Source: Storm Prediction Center
An approaching cold front looks to produce some showers and thunderstorms Sunday evening, after that a major cool down is coming to East Texas.
A cold front has been pushing closer to East Texas over the past few days and looks to move through Sunday afternoon/evening, with it coming a few showers and thunderstorms. This front is in association with an upper level trough that has not done much over the past few weeks, but this trough looks to "dig" further south. Usually when this happens, it helps to amplify the intensity of storms on the downwind side of the trough. This is what is shaping up for us.
Some of these storms could be severe with the biggest threat being hail and damaging winds. Ample moisture and instability will aid the development of hail. Some tornadoes are possible, but the threat is still very small. While there is some wind shear (turning winds with height and changing wind speeds with height), it is not all that sufficient to support tornado development. But again tornadoes are not out of the question. Some locally heavy rain is also possible with these storms. Three diagrams depict the chances for these threats in this story.
As these storms develop, some of the models have been indicating that it could develop into a squall line. A squall line is a linear line of showers and thunderstorms which are known for producing strong damaging winds at the surface.
After these storms move through, a big cool down will follow on Monday and Tuesday. We're talking highs in the middle to upper 40s, and lows in the upper 20s. A Canadian air-mass (continental polar air mass, which is a cold and dry air mass) will filter in behind the front over the next few days, mainly due to the northerly winds that will be howling as high as 20mph and gusting as high as 30mph. Some of the models have been indicating a little bit of a mixed precip. falling behind this front first thing Monday morning. The chances for this happening are slim to none, but we'll keep it mentioned in the forecast.