Technical Discussion: Severe thunderstorms are possible - WFSB 3 Connecticut

HARTFORD, Conn. (WFSB) -

Good Tuesday evening,

Today, we really felt the heat and humidity of summer! High temperatures were in the 80s and lower 90s and dew point readings were in the 60s and lower 70s. As a result, the heat index rose well into the 90s in many locations. We are only 8 days into the month of July and already the mercury has reached 90 degrees or higher 5 times at Bradley International Airport. The first heat wave of the year occurred on July 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. Is the second heat wave of the year brewing? Well, if the temperature reaches 90 degrees at Bradley International tomorrow then we will have our second 3-day heat wave of the year and the second heat wave within the first 10 days of July. It'll be very close!

A cold front is approaching New England from the west this evening and there are numerous showers and thunderstorms associated with it. The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has placed portions of New York and Pennsylvania in a "moderate" risk for severe weather as we head into this evening. Northwestern portions of Connecticut are within the "slight" risk area for severe weather. It remains to be seen how much the line of severe thunderstorms will weaken before they reach Connecticut, but we will be watching this situation very closely for you throughout the evening. There is the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms that could produce damaging winds. The main threat would be in Western Connecticut. Also, there is the potential for very heavy downpours since the atmosphere is loaded with moisture. It is going to be mild and very muggy overnight with low temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s.

The cold front should bring slightly drier air to the state tomorrow. Dew point temperatures will drop through the 60s tomorrow, but it will still be very warm with highs in the 80s to near 90 degrees. With the cold front in the vicinity, there is the potential for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening.

The cold front will settle to the south and east of New England tomorrow night and Thursday. Meanwhile, high pressure will build in from the west. That means the end of the workweek is looking good! We can expect seasonably warm weather Thursday and Friday with highs in the 80s. Plus, the nights will be more comfortable as well. In fact, the mercury should dip into the 50s in many parts of the state by dawn Friday. Thursday and Friday will be nice looking days with a combination of sunshine and fair weather clouds.

The weekend is looking good too, although temperature and humidity levels will gradually rise. Temperatures could reach the upper 80s Saturday and Sunday, and dew point readings will rise back into the 60s, especially by Sunday. However, the risk of showers will remain low. There is only a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm by late Sunday afternoon.

Showers and thunderstorms are much more likely on Monday as a cold front moves into a warm, moisture laden air mass. There is the potential for heavy rain. Dry air should work its way back onto Southern New England by Tuesday or Wednesday.

Have a terrific week!

Chief Meteorologist Bruce DePrest

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