Happy Sunday! Get ready to sweat. Today will begin on a moderately muggy, partly sunny and mild note. The air will quickly warm so that, by afternoon, highs will be in the middle and upper-80s. Gradually, the humidity will continue to increase, as well. By late in the day, some of our weather models are saying that 70 degree dew points will be widespread. This level of humidity can be unbearable for some; it is also good thunderstorm making air. Although the mechanisms for thunderstorm production won't be too impressive, upper-80s with high humidity might be just enough to initiate a few. Any that do fire will be efficient rain-makers.
Monday and Tuesday offer the best opportunity for showers and thunderstorms. The "much talked about" polar vortex will be diving into the Great lakes, giving that region air that is 20°+ below normal. At the same time, the heat and humidity will still be over New England and, in the middle a cold front will sit. We will be positioned close enough that showers and thunderstorms will form in our area as a result of this front and the heat and humidity combined. By afternoon Monday and Tuesday, as highs reach into the middle and upper 80s with the 70-degree dew points sticking around, thunderstorms may not only be numerous, some may be strong -- if not severe. The biggest concern would be damaging wind from the strongest cells In addition to flash flooding. Some models suggest an average of 2"-3" of rain may fall in parts of the state (a few say western Connecticut will get the highest of these rain totals) with even higher totals in narrow, localized corridors.
Although the models do not agree on how Wednesday will shape up, we have chosen to take a pessimistic route and say that the front will linger. Although cooler air will infiltrate, holding highs in the 70s Wednesday, clouds will likely linger, as will rain showers and thunderstorms.
The weather will turn nice Thursday and stay nice Friday. Highs in the 80s with sunshine, dry air and comfortable breezes will be courtesy of a high pressure system that will slowly float by. A cool front may bring showers next Saturday. Note that the "polar vortex" will not have the same cooling impact here as it will in the Great Lakes, as it will moderate a great deal before arriving in a much milder way Thursday.
Enjoy the rest of your weekend!
Meteorologist Mike Cameron
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