Technical Discussion: strong thunderstorms Sunday - WFSB 3 Connecticut

HARTFORD, Conn. (WFSB) -

4:30 Update.  OK.  Today was somewhat of a bust.  Cloudier skies were expected by the end of the day – but not to the extent we saw so soon.  And the sprinkles and showers that passed were farther north than forecasted.  (We briefly mentioned the possibility of Fairfield County getting grazed by a few.)  These factors resulted in enough shading to bust our temperature forecast…instead of low to mid 80s, we saw highs in the 70s to near 80 degrees.  So now what?  During the rest of the afternoon, there will be more clouds than sun and temperatures will either hold steady or slip back a few degrees over the next several hours.  We should see rain-free weather for the rest of the day.

 

**Previous discussion**

 

The last weekend of July is here and the weekend will start out quite pleasantly.  High pressure will move off the East Coast today allowing the nice weather to last through most of today.  There will be a few more clouds in the sky than yesterday, but these should not be an issue of concern for any outdoor activities you might have planned.  Highs will be in the mid 80s and the humidity will rise a bit as well, but it will still remain within the comfortable range.  Plus, a nice south to southwesterly breeze will freshen across the state as the day wears on.

 

The second half of the weekend won't be as nice.  Humidity levels will continue to rise Saturday night and it'll feel tropical by Sunday with dew point temperatures quite possibly reaching 70 degrees or higher.  A few showers could reach western Connecticut and Massachusetts by tonight and increase in coverage Saturday night as the humid air moves in.  While Sunday won't be a washout, showers and thunderstorms will be a threat from time to time.  Some storms could pack a pretty good punch with heavy downpours and there may be some concern for gusty winds and hail, too.  In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted southern New England as being under a "slight risk" for severe thunderstorms tomorrow.  Sky conditions will vary from cloudy to partly sunny and temperatures should rise well into the 80s.

 

Monday may also bring unsettled weather.  A low pressure system and a cold front will pass through New England on Monday; therefore, more showers and thunderstorms are possible.  High temperatures will be in the 80s.  The humidity may start to drop during the afternoon, but that all depends on how quickly the front moves through.  Right now, it looks like it will be a slow process.

 

The front will finally move off the New England Coast by Tuesday then we can look forward to dry, comfortable weather for much of next week.  The jet stream will dip southward across much of the Eastern United States next week.  That means the final days of July will be a little cooler than normal.  The air will be just a bit unstable with a trough hovering in the upper regions of the atmosphere.  Thus, we can't rule out a few pop-up afternoon showers with cool nights and dry, pleasantly warm days.

 

 

Enjoy your weekend!

 

 

Meteorologist Mike Cameron and Chief Meteorologist Bruce DePrest

 

 

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