Technical Discussion: strong storms tomorrow - WFSB 3 Connecticut

Technical Discussion: strong storms tomorrow

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Strong thunderstorms are possible Sunday.  It will likely be an "Early Warning Weather Day." 


Tonight will be quiet at least through midnight.  Partly sunny skies will come with slightly elevated humidity and mild temperatures.  After midnight, an isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible; otherwise, patchy clouds and starlit sky will be what you see when you peer out the window.  Lows will dip down into the middle and upper-60s as the humidity gradually increases.


There may be scattered showers and thunderstorms in the morning.  Not all computer models depict a robust rain, but some do.  As is often the case, trends from the previous day's storms are among the better clues of how the thunderstorms will evolve.  As it looks now, thunderstorm two separate clusters will most likely propagate around the state, one to the south of Connecticut and the other to the north.  Although it is possible that new thunderstorms could sprout up along outflow boundaries cast by these storms, necessary daytime heating is lacking thereby making boundary-induced storm formation less likely.  


Thunderstorms are likely in the afternoon.  Models that depict less morning rain are forecasting a more rapid warm-up and, therefore an earlier start to thunderstorms.  Two model runs initiated thunderstorm convection as early as around noon.  Other models that bring about a healthy dose of morning showers forecast a later start to thunderstorm regeneration during the afternoon.


Quite honestly, either scenario is plausible.  Regardless of how the morning showers evolve into the afternoon ones, severe thunderstorms are possible with damaging wind and large hail possible, in addition torrential downpours and cloud-to-ground lightning.  The Storm Prediction Center has maintained that all of Connecticut is within a slight risk for severe weather, which seems entirely reasonable, given the data we have at the current time.


Monday may also bring unsettled weather.  A low pressure system and a cold front will pass through New England on Monday; therefore, more showers and thunderstorms are possible.  High temperatures will be in the 80s.  The humidity may start to drop during the afternoon, but that all depends on how quickly the front moves through.  Right now, it looks like it will be a slow process.


The front will finally move off the New England coast by Tuesday then we can look forward to dry, comfortable weather for much of next week.  The jet stream will dip southward across much of the Eastern United States next week.  That means the final days of July will be a little cooler than normal.  The air will be just a bit unstable with a trough hovering in the upper regions of the atmosphere.  Thus, we can't rule out a few pop-up afternoon showers with cool nights and dry, pleasantly warm days.


By Friday and Saturday, a new storm system will arrive and start to bring humidity and the chance for thunderstorms back into the Northeast.  We should expect to see showers by Friday afternoon.  And, at first glance, Saturday looks to be a rather wet day.



Enjoy your weekend!



Meteorologist Mike Cameron


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