Technical Discussion: warmer weather coming! - WFSB 3 Connecticut

Technical Discussion: warmer weather coming!

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Clouds did not want to go away today.  Tonight, they will finally relent a bit and allow for partially cloudy skies.  It will turn cooler as a result, with many towns experiencing lows in the perfect sleeping range of the middle-50s by sunrise tomorrow.  The wind will remain light throughout the night and into the morning hours, not only helping with the cool-down, but also helping balloon pilots launch their craft early tomorrow morning in Plainville at the Hot Air Balloon Festival.


We will get to enjoy a little more sunshine tomorrow than we did today.  the models are showing gradual drying in the atmosphere tomorrow which does not promise absolute sunshine, but it does promise that there will be far more breaks in the cloud cover tomorrow, allowing the sun to both cheer up the end to the weekend, but also warm it up a little more, with highs in the upper-70s to near 80 degrees.


Monday and Tuesday will be awesome.  High pressure will ensure a slow subsiding motion in the general air currents aloft.  This type of circulation resists cloud development which, in turn, promotes sunny skies.  It was also render greater warmth.  Highs both afternoons will reach into the lower-80s along the Shoreline and in the higher elevations, while hitting the mid-80s in urban areas and valley floors, including Greater Hartford, the Farmington Valley, Waterbury, etc.  The humidity is forecasted to remain respectably low, which will, in turn, ensure that the heat won't feel oppressive.


Higher humidity and heat will come Wednesday and Thursday.  As high pressure moves east, the wind will urn southwesterly, which will scoop up some of the tropical air that has been boiling over the Southern Plains for the last several days.  For Connecticut, it will translate into highs between 85 and 90 degrees with dew points in the 60s – if not near 70 for a short spell.


Late Thursday, Friday and Saturday are…well…we really don't know with confidence how these days will pan out.  There are a few weather issues on the table:


  1.  A cold front will be approaching late Thursday and will likely be coming into Connecticut Thursday night or Friday morning.
  2. Tropical Depression 4 – perhaps Hurricane Cristobal by Thursday – may be chugging northerly off the Eastern Seaboard by this time, though the model ensembles are "all over the place" in forecasting the storm's path from Tuesday through Thursday.


Right now, the thinking is that Cristobal won't make a direct hit on New England, but that it will slow the pattern down over the region while the storm steams up through the northern Atlantic.  So, the cold front that will have arrived Thursday night may linger Friday and even Saturday, exiting only when it is safe and TD #4/Cristobal-to-be is gone.  We'll see…


Hope your weekend's been great!


Meteorologist Mike Cameron


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