Technical Discussion: warming trend - WFSB 3 Connecticut

Technical Discussion: warming trend

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4:44 PM Update:  The model output has shown to be in much better agreement about the next several days – including when forecasting the track of Cristobal.  I usually don't latch onto major shift in forecasts unless there is a trend that is evident in several model runs.  But, because there is now better agreement between the major models in this forecast cycle, I have:

  1. Accelerated of the arrival of a cold front on Thursday.  Instead of clouds coming in the evening, they are here during the day with scattered showers.  This acceleration nixes the 90 degrees originally projected for Thursday.
  2. The front is likely to linger and drier, cooler Canadian air seems to have more staying power; consequently, Friday and most of Saturday should be nice.
  3. A warm front will bring rain Sunday.
  4. Am more convinced Cristobal will go far enough out to sea, there won't be a direct hit.

--Mike Cameron

 

***Previous Discussion***

 

At last: sunshine!  After a little morning fog in a few areas, we will get to enjoy more sunshine today than we did Saturday.  The atmosphere will continue to gradually dry, which will bring about partly sunny skies for the rest of the day.  Not only will the sun cheer up the end to the weekend, but also warm it up a little more, with highs in the upper-70s to near 80 degrees.

 

We still think Monday and Tuesday will be awesome and will provide a nice backdrop to the start of the new school year for those districts returning to classes this week.  High pressure will ensure a slow subsiding motion in the general air currents aloft.  This type of circulation resists cloud development which, in turn, promotes sunny skies.  It was also render greater warmth.  Highs both afternoons will reach into the lower-80s along the Shoreline and in the higher elevations, while hitting the mid-80s in urban areas and valley floors, including Greater Hartford, the Farmington Valley, Waterbury, etc.  The humidity is forecasted to remain respectably low, which will, in turn, ensure that the heat won't feel oppressive.  The lower humidity will also translate into comfortable nights with lows Monday and Tuesday nights in the 50s to near 60 degrees.

 

Higher humidity and heat will come Wednesday and Thursday.  As high pressure moves east, the wind will urn southwesterly, which will scoop up some of the tropical air that has been boiling over the Southern Plains for the last several days.  For Connecticut, it will translate into highs between 85 and 90 degrees with dew points in the 60s – if not near 70 for a short spell.

 

Late Thursday, Friday and Saturday are…well…we really don't know with confidence how these days will pan out.  There are a few weather issues on the table:

 

  1. A cold front will be approaching late Thursday and will likely be coming into Connecticut Thursday night or Friday morning.
  2. Tropical Storm – perhaps Hurricane by Thursday -- Cristobal may be chugging northerly off the Eastern Seaboard by this time.  The models are becoming more consistent among each other on a path that would take the storm east of the US Coast; however, it is still early.

 

Right now, the thinking is that Cristobal won't make a direct hit on New England, but that it will slow the pattern down over the region while the storm steams up through the northern Atlantic.  So, the cold front that will have arrived Thursday night may linger Friday and even Saturday, exiting only when it is safe and Cristobal-to-be is gone.  We'll see…  Rip currents may also be a problem if Cristobal's circulation comes close enough to New England.  Swimming may be prohibited for a time during the Labor Day weekend, especially on the Cape and other easterly-facing beaches.

 

Hope your weekend's been great!

 

Meteorologist Mike Cameron

 

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