Technical discussion: back to school warm-up - WFSB 3 Connecticut

Technical discussion: back to school warm-up

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We've made several "tweaks" to the forecast over the next seven days, thanks to new information and an overall increase in confidence in the forecast models: their output is showing markedly better agreement among them, which lends itself to this higher confidence.


Now through Tuesday.  The next 48 hours will be really nice.  Dry, comfortable air will be in place.  Partly to mostly sunny skies can be expected by day and clear skies at night.  The result will be wide swings in temperature: from 50s in the mornings to 80s in the afternoon – both today and tomorrow.  All the while, the low humidity will be the key in maintaining a comfortable feeling.


Tuesday night and Wednesday.  The humidity will ramp up Tuesday night as the wind turns more southwesterly.  The higher humidity will mean that the lows will be in the 60s, not the 50s.  The higher humidity will also mean that, when highs go into the upper-80s Wednesday afternoon, the heat and humidity will be quite noticeable.  Lemonade and ice cream may be popular choices this particular day!


Thursday and Cristobal.  One of the more pronounced changes we've made to the 7-day forecast is Thursday's forecast.  The timetable on Cristobal's northward movement is part of the reason for the changes.  In short, the newer forecasts show a faster movement of weather systems and there is more confidence in this forecast because of somewhat better model and ensemble agreement.  Instead of Cristobal lingering southeast of New England through Friday, the current forecasts project a swifter north-northeast movement, with the center of the circulation north of 40 degrees north longitude by Friday.  At this pace, a cold front that was originally expected to meekly nose its way into New England Thursday night will now more likely arrive bullishly during the day Thursday.  With clouds, showers and cooler air arriving during the afternoon, the original forecast of near 90 degrees Thursday has been docked back to 80 degrees -- a "maybe if we're lucky" 80 degrees.


Cristobal's path could still sing the storm close enough to enhance the rip current, especially later Friday and maybe Saturday.  But a direct hit from the storm is appearing to be less likely. 


Friday through Sunday:  A northwest flow from Canada and high pressure will render Friday gorgeous with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s under partly sunny skies.  Saturday will start off just as excellent, with clear blue skies and lows in the 50s.  The sky will turn gradually more muted, however, as a warm front approaches and pushes clouds into the horizon.  After midnight, rain will move into the state and linger intermittently all day Sunday.  Although not yet in the scope of the 7 day forecast, an early look at Labor Day's forecast shows an "iffy" day with the possibility of instability showers. 


Good luck to the kids returning to school this week!


Meteorologist Mike Cameron


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