Good evening everyone! I just want to give you an update on the current weather situation. We got our 1-3" of rain in CT last night and this morning. Now we are getting a break from the rain tonight and tomorrow. There could be a couple of showers or some spotty drizzle, but nothing heavy. Northerly winds are sending temperatures downward. Overnight lows will be in the 50s with some 40s in the Litchfield Hills.
More rain is in the forecast for Thursday night and Friday, but hopefully the heaviest rain will remain to the south of CT. The shoreline stands the best chance of getting a steadier and heavier rain than northern portions of the state.
Rain will be generally light on Saturday. The next couple of days will be quite breezy and quite cool. High pressure in Canada is forcing cool air southward across all of New England. Highs tomorrow will be in the 60s at best and we will likely stay in the 50s Friday and Saturday.
Beyond Saturday, the forecast becomes complicated and a lot greatly depends on the future track of Hurricane Joaquin. As of 8:00 this evening, Joaquin has strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. The hurricane is drifting toward the southwest for now, but will eventually turn northward and it will get even stronger.
Interestingly, there is still some discrepancy when it comes to the forecast track. The European Model is the outlier with a track out to sea. This model performed the best with the track of SuperStorm Sandy a few years ago. It has been very consistent over the last several runs with Joaquin. So has the GFS, another trusted forecast model. However, the GFS has Joaquin getting captured by a developing upper level low over the Eastern US. As a result, the forecast track has Joaquin moving northward then it takes a sharp left hand turn slamming into the Carolinas Saturday night or early Sunday morning. Several forecast guidance models are forecasting a similar scenario. Given the uncertainties, we are not sure what impact Joaquin will have on CT, if any. If the GFS is correct, we would eventually get some rain and wind, but from a much weaker system following landfall. That would happen early next week. However, that is just one scenario and there are other possibilities.
The best I can do for now is to promise I will keep you updated with new information over the coming days. I will have a brand new forecast track from the National Hurricane Center tonight on Eyewitness News at 11:00. I suspect there will be a forecast track shift to the west. We'll see!
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