WARMER, THEN WETTER LATER THIS WEEK
Noon Update: WOW! It's warm out there!
At 11am this morning, the temperature at Bradley International was 72 degrees. Now while that doesn't sound all "that" warm, it really is by October 17th standards, and that temp is going to continue to move up! Keep in mind, the normal high for this date is 63 degrees, so we're doing a whole lot better than that! Tomorrow and Wednesday are going to be even warmer, so please read on for more details.
While we were expecting some showers this morning, they moved to the south and east of the area and basically fell apart. We're dealing with partly to mostly sunny skies this afternoon and incredibly mild temperatures. As mentioned above, those temps will continue to rise this afternoon into the mid 70s, and possibly even a little higher in some inland locations.
Tonight and tomorrow morning, a cool front will be somewhere close to Connecticut, if not draped over the state. It will retreat back north as a warm front. Therefore you can expect mostly cloudy skies, but not a lot of shower activity. What we could be dealing with is patchy fog as the front retreats, as is often the case with warm frontal passages. Once the warm front lifts north of the state and into northern New England by noon tomorrow, a much warmer southwesterly flow will develop as the sunshine makes a return.
Record warmth possible Tomorrow and Wednesday
Unusually warm weather will come tomorrow and Wednesday. Once the sky clears Tuesday and the southwesterly flow establishes itself, we may have record warmth. Tomorrow’s record for Greater Hartford is 80 degrees, set in 1968, and Wednesday’s record is 82 degrees, set in 1963. We think tomorrow's record, in particular, may be breached with our forecast for 82 in Greater Hartford. Likewise, Bridgeport’s records of 75 set in 1990 for Tuesday and 81 set in 1963 for Wednesday are also in serious jeopardy. Overall, the period will also bring fair weather.
Cooler & Dry Thursday
Cooler weather will be here Thursday, courtesy of a cold front that will have passed. Highs will still be above average, but far closer to them, in the lower-70s. We should expect variably cloudy skies with the chance of a shower or two by late-day as a ribbon of moisture starts to move north from the Deep South, right over New England. This wetter weather will be in response to a developing storm system to our west, one that may impact us most of the day Friday and Saturday too.
Wet weather possible Friday & Saturday
Yes, Friday and Saturday may be wet at times. A few model runs are forecasting a system from the Great Lakes entering the eastern seaboard Friday, possibly initiating a coastal storm Saturday. And a few model runs also introduce some form of a tropical storm or wave into the mix. In these latest runs, the placement of the rain and intensity of the storm(s) are items of disagreement. Connecticut may find itself in the “dry donut hole” again, where heavy rains fall over western and central New York and move into southern Canada – leaving Connecticut without much rain. Other models show a placement more conducive to Connecticut receiving a good amount of rain.
Hopefully a wetter future is in store for us. Rain deficits are running 5”-11” for the year and 12”-18” for the last two years.
WET, THEN COOLER NEXT WEEKEND
Once the Friday-Saturday storm moves east, cooler air will move in. A strong northwesterly wind will come as the storm lifts out, ushering autumnal air we should expect in later October, with highs in the 50s and lower-60s and lows in the 30s Sunday.
Meteorologist Mike Cameron with Scot Haney
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