A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the entire state until 8 pm. Additionally, a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for essentially the western two-thirds of the state (runs through tonight).
There will be two time-frames to monitor: 1) this afternoon with isolated/scattered development; then 2) this evening when a robust line moving through the region. The greatest concerns, in addition to heavy rain and frequent lightning will be damaging wind, perhaps some hail. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out somewhere in the region.
Due to the tropical nature of the air mass (dew points 70-75) and slow movement of the approaching cold front, in the heaviest of the rain some towns could receive 2" or more leading to flash flooding concern.
Meteorologist Mark Dixon
UNSETTLED AT TIMES THIS WEEK
Strong thunderstorms possible later Today
Today will be another warm and humid day, with strong thunderstorms possible during the afternoon and evening.
While it's a fairly quiet start, with the exception of a few isolated storms, we are expecting a pretty active afternoon and evening here in the state. Most of the day will be partly sunny, hazy and warm. Temperatures will rise into the 80s inland and top off in the upper-70s to near 80 degrees along the Shoreline.
Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center is still highlighting northwestern Connecticut within the area of “enhanced risk” for strong storms.
Timing. Thunderstorms will begin their approach after 3 PM – perhaps a couple of hours after 3 PM. Some model runs hold most of the thunderstorms off until after 5 or 6 PM; however, other show potential for thunderstorms as early as 2 or 3 PM.
Severe Weather Risks. Large hail and strong straight-line wind would be the main modes of concern, given strong wind energy aloft and resulting broad-scale shear. These damaging elements will be isolated events, not widespread. Also, in looking at some of the tornado-related parameters (level of saturation, low level turning of wind, among others), the tornado threat will not be absolute zero. Therefore, we will be keeping a sharp eye on the radar for rotation. Western Connecticut will be more prone to seeing severe weather; as storms move east, they will weaken some.
Flash Flooding Risk. Flash flooding is also possible and flash flood watches are already in effect for Hartford, Tolland, New Haven, Fairfield, and Litchfield Counties. Downpours may being rains of 1-2” per hour, that may quickly inundate small streams and brooks, pushing them up to and over their banks.
Showers and thunderstorms may linger tonight and into the wee hours of tomorrow. Low temperatures tomorrow morning will be in the middle to upper 60s.
A few showers Tuesday and Wednesday
On Tuesday, while the front will pass through Connecticut in the morning, it may stall nearby, just offshore. If this scenario happens, Tuesday will feature a partly cloudy sky with perhaps an isolated shower. A secondary cold front will move through Wednesday providing another chance for a shower during the afternoon. Highs both days will be seasonable, with lower 80s inland and upper 70s at the shore, along with less humidity. The normal highs for June 21st and 22nd are both 81 degrees.
Thursday will be dry, with a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the lower 80s inland and upper 70s near the water. It will likely be a comfortable day, too, with dew point temperatures in the 50s. This is great news for the first round of the Traveler’s Championship taking place at TPC River Highlands golf course in Cromwell.
Showers Friday and over the weekend
A series of disturbances will slide into New England from the west and southwest, providing the chance for showers and thunderstorms. Right now, Friday evening, at times on Saturday, and later Sunday appear to be the more likely times for rain.
Meteorologist Mike Cameron with Scot Haney
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