While many towns will likely remain dry this afternoon, isolated showers will be possible. Regardless, expect more clouds than sun and for temperatures to reach the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Tonight and really into early tomorrow morning, we will see a better chance for steadier and even heavier rain. There is a LOT of uncertainty as to where the heaviest of the rain will fall (there very likely will be a narrow band). Our computer guidance models have been all over the place, geographically and with regard to the amount of rain. This is in large part determined by the advancement of a warm front, as it heads north into Southern New England. In addition to the threat for heavier rain, thunderstorms will also be possible early in the morning. By early afternoon Friday, some areas may receive very little rain while others may pick up an inch or two here in CT…where the heaviest falls, poor drainage flooding could be an issue.
For the weekend, the cold front that was once going to move through Saturday morning and provide a chance for rain/thunder now appears to arrive a bit later… this will mean the threat for storms goes into the afternoon hours. Behind the front, Sunday, it will be dry, mostly sunny and less humid!
Meteorologist Mark Dixon
INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY…
Unfortunately, changes are on the way starting today. The high pressure system that has given us our recent gorgeous weather will move eastward into the Atlantic Ocean. At the same time, a stalled frontal boundary across the Mid-Atlantic States will extend eastward, which will allow a wave of low pressure to ride along it. Clouds will increase throughout the day and the flow will turn southeasterly. The clouds and onshore flow will hold temperatures in the lower 80s inland and the middle 70s at the shore.
RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY…
The wave of low pressure will pass just south of Connecticut tonight, spreading rain across the state from southwest to northeast after midnight with temperatures in the 60s. By tomorrow morning's commute, rain could be quite heavy as models are printing out over an inch of rain with this system!
Rain will end sometime tomorrow afternoon, but there is some uncertainty as to the exact timing of this. Most of the computer models have the rain exiting the state by early afternoon with some clearing shortly after that. This would allow for highs near 80, perhaps even higher in most places. Tomorrow will feature increased humidity, as dew points will be well into the 60s.
UNSETTLED SATURDAY MORNING, OTHERWISE NICE WEEKEND…
By Saturday morning, a cold front will pass through Connecticut, allowing for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Any showers that do develop will be gone by midday and skies will turn partly to mostly sunny. As the front clears the area, the winds will turn more northwesterly. It will be a warm day, with highs in the middle to upper 80s, but dew points will drop throughout the day.
Saturday night should be great for fireworks in Hartford and at Sailfest in New London! Skies will be mostly clear with temperatures falling through the 70s in the evening and bottoming out near 60 by daybreak Sunday. The beautiful weather will continue into Sunday. It will be mostly sunny, temperatures will top out in the 80-85 degree range, and the humidity will be low.
WARMER MONDAY, SHOWERS & STORMS TUESDAY…
A cold front will approach New England from the north and west early next week. The European Model is a little faster with the front than the GFS Model, bringing the front through Monday as opposed to Tuesday. Therefore, timing the showers and thunderstorms associated with the front is difficult. For now, we’ll go with the slower GFS. Therefore, we are forecasting mostly sunny skies and highs in the 80s on Monday. Showers and thunderstorms are most likely Tuesday afternoon and evening. Plus, Tuesday should be a very warm day with highs in the mid to upper 80s. The humidity will be higher as well due to a southerly flow in advance of the front.
Regardless of when the front comes through, high pressure will build in for Wednesday. This will bring us sunny skies and relatively low humidity. Highs will be near to slightly below average, reaching the lower 80s in most of the state. The normal high at Bradley Airport for July 12th is 85 degrees.
Have a great day!
Chief Meteorologist Bruce DePrest with Scot Haney
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