1PM UPDATE: A Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued at 12:53pm for Northern Hartford County and Northern Tolland Counties. This Warning is in effect until 2pm this afternoon. We're getting reports of hail and very heavy downpours, so please let this storm pass you on by!
We're busy keeping an eye to the sky at this noon hour, monitoring showers and thunderstorms to the north of Connecticut in Massachusetts. While we've seen a few showers pop here in our state, nothing has gone severe as of this update. If any of these storms do, we'll be certain to pass along the information on air and online!
The recent unsettled weather is all thanks to a cold front that has approached us from the north and west. Initially, we were thinking that the cold front would clear the state last night, but instead it got hung up to our north. That's keeping our humidity levels up and skies partly to mostly cloudy.
HOT & HUMID TODAY, PM STORMS POSSIBLE…
With the front now staying to our north, today will be a bit more unsettled than we previously thought. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening, especially in northern Connecticut, which will be closer to the frontal boundary. That's where a Flash Flood Watch is in effect until 9pm this evening. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the entire state in the “Marginal Risk” category for severe weather. This means any storms that do develop could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds. It will also be a bit warmer, as the mercury could reach or exceed 90 degrees inland. An onshore breeze will keep shore locations slightly cooler, with low and middle 80s for highs there.
Tonight will be another warm and muggy one, as temperatures will remain within a couple degrees of 70 for overnight lows. Scattered showers will continue to be possible.
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THURSDAY…
The cold front will try to sag southward towards us during the day tomorrow, and exactly how far it gets will determine exactly how warm we get. Right now, we think the front will drape itself over Connecticut tomorrow, which would make for a mostly cloudy day with highs in the lower 80s. If the front stays further north than we are forecasting, more sunshine would break out and temperatures would be several degrees warmer. The greatest chance for warmer temperatures would be in southern Connecticut, as there is a better chance of the front remaining north of there. There will also be chances of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, especially if we get more sun, as that would destabilize the atmosphere.
RAINY & COOL THURSDAY NIGHT & FRIDAY…
Regardless of what happens tomorrow, an area of high pressure to our north will push the front back south of Connecticut Thursday night. A wave of low pressure will develop along the front and track along it. That will bring us easterly winds along with showers and some steadier rain – some of which could be heavy – Thursday night and during the day on Friday. The rain and onshore flow will keep temperatures on Friday well below average, struggling to even reach the lower 70s! The normal high at Bradley Airport for July 14th is 85 degrees.
Rain and showers will continue into Friday evening before ending later at night. Low temperatures will be in the lower 60s.
PLEASANT DAY SATURDAY…
The high pressure system will build into Connecticut Saturday morning, which will allow skies to clear out and set us up for a very nice day. The humidity levels will be comfortable and highs will be close to seasonal averages, reaching the lower to middle 80s across the state.
HOT & HUMID WITH SCATTERED STORMS SUNDAY-TUESDAY…
By Sunday, a cold front will approach Connecticut from the west. But it will get hung up before it reaches us thanks to a large ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic. That means Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday will feature hot and humid conditions with south to southwest winds. We expect Sunday to be dry, but some showers and thunderstorms may develop Monday and Tuesday afternoons as the air will be quite unstable.
It is quite possible that inland locations may achieve heat wave status early next week, as highs will be close to 90 each day! Remember, a heat wave is at least three consecutive days where high temperatures reach 90 degrees or higher. The onshore winds will keep shoreline locations in the lower to middle 80s Sunday through Tuesday.
Chief Meteorologist Bruce DePrest with Scot Haney
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