The rest of today will be warm and tad muggy under a mix of sun and clouds… inland we’re on track to top out in the lower 80s! (that's nearly 15 degrees above average for the 5th of October)
Late evening and tonight, we’ll run the risk for scattered showers. Tomorrow now looks to be primarily dry with more clouds than sunshine, highs will be in the upper 70s.
The weekend will be warm and muggy. While most of Saturday will be dry, there will be a chance for rain or a storm Sunday.
TD #16 has intensified, so we now have Tropical Storm Nate (as of 8am). It will soon enter the Gulf of Mexico… this weekend and likely strengthen to a hurricane, it could impact areas from Louisiana to Florida --- there is a big spread in the models. Beyond the weekend (as of now), the eventual remnant moisture from Nate will move toward/into Southern New England early next week (Mon/Tue)... this will potentially give us heavy rain.
Meteorologist Mark Dixon
A cold front moved into Southern New England overnight. However, it came through moisture starved, so we didn't get any rain. It's also unseasonably mild for early October. Temperatures are in the upper 50s and low to mid 60s this morning under a mainly clear sky.
Today will likely be the warmest day of the week. The cold front will do very little to cool things off since the push of cool air behind it is very weak. In fact, the front will likely stall near or just to the south of Connecticut today/tonight. Highs will be in the 70s and lower 80s this afternoon and the humidity will be moderate. Winds will be fairly light and the sky will be partly sunny.
The stalled front will be the focal point for scattered showers. There will also be a weak area of high pressure in Southern New England. Therefore, we don’t expect much in the way of rain, just a few light showers. Most of the day will be dry. Sky conditions will likely range from partly cloudy to mostly cloudy. There should be enough cloud cover to limit high temperatures to the 70s.
THE COLUMBUS DAY WEEKEND…
Warm, humid air will surge northward into Connecticut over the weekend. The warm front will pass through our state on Saturday. Saturday will likely start out cloudy and there may be areas of fog as well. There could be a sprinkle or some spotty drizzle, but that’s about it. The sky should become partly sunny Saturday afternoon and a southerly breeze will freshen. The humidity will become noticeably higher. Dew point readings will rise into the 60s and temperatures will likely peak somewhere in the 70s. Whether we’ll see highs in the lower 70s or the upper 70s will greatly depend on the progression of the warm front and when the sun breaks through the clouds. Saturday night will be quite balmy for early October with lows in the mid to upper 60s.
Sunday will be warm and humid with highs in the lower 80s over interior portions of the state. A weak cold front will be in the vicinity and that means there will be a chance for a shower, perhaps even a thunderstorm in the late afternoon or evening. Overall, it’ll be a pretty nice day with partly sunny skies, but you will likely need the air conditioner again to keep your home comfortable.
The forecast for Monday, Columbus Day, remains complicated. A lot depends on the progress of Tropical Depression #16, which is expected to strengthen and become Tropical Storm Nate today. Currently, the depression is in the Southwestern Caribbean Sea off the east coast of Nicaragua. Nate is expected to strike the Gulf Coast as a Category 1 hurricane perhaps as early as Sunday morning. At this time the models don't agree, so the timing of landfall and where it strikes along the Gulf Coast remains to be seen.
Nate will weaken rapidly over land, but tropical moisture from this system will move northward and it could reach New England as early as Monday. If that happens, we could have a period of heavy rain. At this point we are not sure where the heaviest rain will fall, but this will need to be watched. We really need some rain, but we don’t want too much all at once. Abundant cloud cover and rain should limit highs to the lower 70s and the air will remain humid.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY…
This forecast is "Nate" dependent therefore, we won’t get too specific with Tuesday’s forecast at this point in time. By Wednesday, weather conditions are expected to improve.
Chief Meteorologist Bruce DePrest with Scot Haney
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