Quite mild, for now... record warmth? - WFSB 3 Connecticut

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Quite mild, for now... record warmth?

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HARTFORD, CT (WFSB) -

AFTERNOON UPDATE...

What a gorgeous Wednesday underway across CT, weather-wise!  After starting the day with temperatures in the 40s, as of they Noon hour, they've already reached 60 in many towns inland (mid-50s along the shoreline).  In fact, at Windsor Locks where the official records are kept... the temperature has topped out at 61 so far, just 5 degrees away from the record for this date!  While that record will likely stand, certainly enjoy the milder weather under a mostly sunny sky as it won't last.

A cold front is progressing through Southern New England and is doing so with little fanfare.  The wind is switching to the west, but cooler air will lag behind.  Tomorrow we'll feel it with highs back in the mid-40s.  Another system will bring scattered showers to the state very early Friday, then we'll end the week with clearing and highs back near 50.  

The upcoming weekend appears to feature seasonable temperatures with a partly to mostly sunny sky both days.  Looking ahead to next week, a storm system may bring some rain to CT late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Meteorologist Mark Dixon

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TODAY…

A cold front will sweep across the state early this afternoon.  Since we got off to a relatively mild start this morning, temperatures will easily rise into the 50s before the front arrives.  A west or southwesterly breeze will turn northwesterly during the afternoon after the front moves through.  Gusts to 30 mph or higher are likely.  The front will produce some partial cloudiness, but no showers since moisture is quite limited.

High pressure and colder air will move into New England tonight.  The sky will be clear, the wind will subside, and temperatures will dip into the 20s in most locations, perhaps the upper teens in the normally cold spots.

THURSDAY, THE LAST DAY OF NOVEMBER…

November will end on a pleasant note tomorrow.  High pressure will be the dominant weather feature.  The air will be seasonably chilly with highs in the 40s.  The wind will be very light in the morning, then a light southerly breeze will develop during the afternoon as high pressure shifts to the east of New England.  The sky will be bright and sunny in the morning, then a veil of high clouds should filter into the state during the afternoon.

High pressure will move away to the east of New England tomorrow night as a weak low pressure system develops off the Mid-Atlantic Coast.  Therefore, clouds will lower and thicken, and light rain should develop before dawn.  Temperatures will remain well above freezing with lows in the 30s to near 40 degrees.

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 1ST

Low pressure will continue to develop out in the ocean well to the east of New England.  That means weather conditions will improve.  Areas of light rain will end early in the morning then the sky will become partly to mostly sunny.  A northwesterly breeze will gust to 20-30 mph. Temperatures will reach the upper 40s and lower 50s before the northwesterly flow ushers in colder air.

Friday night will be clear and chilly.  Temperatures will dip into the 20s and lower 30s.  The sky will be clear and the northwesterly wind will subside as another area of high pressure approaches New England from the west.

THE FIRST WEEKEND OF DECEMBER…

High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature on Saturday and that means we’ll enjoy a nice start to the weekend.  The sky will be mostly sunny and winds will be light.  Highs will be in the 40s to possibly near 50, which is quite pleasant for early December.

The forecast becomes more complicated for Sunday.  A storm will develop in the Atlantic Ocean to the south and east of New England in response to digging jet stream energy high up in the atmosphere.   We’ll have to watch this closely.  For now, the models are suggesting the storm will develop too far offshore to be a big concern for Southern New England.  However, a track closer to the coast could mean snow.  The energy with this system is still over the Pacific Ocean and how this system will evolve over the Eastern United States 5 days from now remains to be seen.  For now, we are going with partly to mostly cloudy skies Sunday, a strengthening northerly wind, and highs in the 40s.

EARLY NEXT WEEK…

The storm will intensify out in the Atlantic as it moves away from New England.  High pressure will approach the region from the west.  Therefore, the sky should become sunny and there will be a gusty north-northwesterly wind.  Highs will be the 40s.

Tuesday looks better.  The sky will be partly sunny, winds will be lighter, and temperatures should reach 50 degrees or higher.

Chief Meteorologist Bruce DePrest with Scot Haney

“Copyright 2017 WFSB (Meredith Corporation). All rights reserved”

OCTOBER RECAP…

The 10th month of the year was rather impressive, here is a look at some of the headlines (for the official climate reporting stations in Connecticut):

  • At Windsor Locks, with 8.77” of rain (4.40” surplus for the month), the 31 days go down as the 5th wettest October since records have been kept.  Bridgeport ends the month at 4th place with 7.37” of rain (3.73” surplus or October).
  • For meteorological autumn, September 1st to now, the surplus at Windsor Locks now stands at 2.77” while for Bridgeport it is 1.98”, which is quite a swing from about a week ago when a moderate drought was declared for much of the state!
  • With regard to temperature, with an average of 59.9° at Windsor Locks, the month goes down as the warmest since records have been kept!  Bridgeport, with an average of 62.4° also goes down as the warmest!

NOAA’s WINTER OUTLOOK…

Forecasters from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center recently issued their outlook for the upcoming winter season (December, January, and February).

They are predicting a weak, but potentially short-lived La Nina in the Pacific Ocean, that could still have a big impact on the winter season.  For New England, odds favor a warmer than normal winter.  However, forecasters are only committing to “equal chances” when it comes to precipitation.  There are no strong signals pointing toward a wet winter and no strong signals pointing toward a dry winter.  It could go either way.  This forecast in no way predicts how much snow we could potentially get.  We must keep in mind La Nina is only one factor that can shape the winter season.  There other factors that could influence winter weather, such as the Arctic Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and Madden-Julian Oscillation.  Some of these are short term events, which are difficult to predict more than one or two weeks in advance. 

“Copyright 2017 WFSB (Meredith Corporation). All rights reserved”

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