Clouds are here, and the rain will follow - WFSB 3 Connecticut

Technical Discussion

Clouds are here, and the rain will follow

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HARTFORD, CT (WFSB) -

NOON UPDATE…

If you've been outside at all today, you know it's a much cooler day than Wednesday was. In fact, we're 20 degrees colder in Hartford at this hour, compared to yesterday at this time. And 21 degrees cooler in Meriden. Clouds have overspread the state too, so expect it to be mostly cloudy for the rest of this afternoon with highs topping out between 40-45. Eventually, around midnight, we'll see a line of showers moving through CT as a cold front approaches, and they should clear out before the sunrises. Friday, the first day of Dec, looks breezy and pleasant. Read all the details below! And have a great day! Melissa

NEAR RECORD HIGHS YESTERDAY…

A cold front passed through the state yesterday, but temperatures still managed to top 60 degrees in many locations.  In fact, the high temperature in Bridgeport was a near record 64 degrees!  The record high for November 29th is 65 degrees, set in 2011 and in 1968.  The high yesterday at Bradley International was 62 degrees.  The record high is 66 degrees, also set in 2011.  The normal high for November 29th is 46 degrees.

A strong northwest wind developed on the heels of the front and we had gusts to over 30 mph in some locations.  Temperatures dropped during course of the afternoon as the northwesterly ushered in cooler air.

THE LAST DAY OF NOVEMBER…

Thanks to an area of high pressure, November will end on a quiet note today.  Conditions are calm and cold this morning. This afternoon, a light southerly breeze will develop as high pressure shifts to the east of New England.  Temperatures will rise into the low and middle 40s.  The sky will be bright and sunny this morning, then clouds will take over later in the day when the ocean flow develops.

High pressure will move away to the east of New England tonight and a weak disturbance will approach the region from the west.  Therefore, the sky will be cloudy and light rain will develop after midnight.  Temperatures will remain well above freezing with lows in the 30s to near 40 degrees.

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 1ST

Areas of light rain will end early in the morning, then the sky will become partly to mostly sunny.  As low pressure develops east of New England a brisk northerly breeze will develop and we should have gusts to 20-30 mph.  Temperatures will reach the upper 40s and lower 50s before the northwesterly flow ushers in colder air.

Friday night will be clear and chilly.  Temperatures will dip into the 20s and lower 30s.  The northerly wind will subside as another area of high pressure approaches New England from the west.

THE FIRST WEEKEND OF DECEMBER…

Saturday is looking good!  Thanks to high pressure, we’ll enjoy a sunny, cool day with highs 45-50.  The wind won’t be too much of a bother, which is good news if you have plans to put up outdoor holiday decorations or perhaps take a trip to the local tree farm.

Sunday will be quiet as well.   The threat of any impact from a developing coastal storm has greatly diminished.  Instead, high pressure will remain in place.  Therefore, we are now forecasting a partly to mostly sunny day with highs in the middle to upper 40s.

The combination of clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to dip into the 20s to near 30 degrees Sunday night.

NEXT WEEK…

High pressure will move offshore on Monday and a warm front will approach New England from the south and west.  A southerly breeze will develop Monday afternoon and sunshine will give way to increasing cloudiness.  It’ll be a comfortable day for early December with highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

A cold front will move into New England by late Tuesday.  The mild southerly flow in advance of the front will send temperatures rising into the 50s!  A period of rain appears likely especially in the late morning and afternoon.

Drier cooler air will move into the state Tuesday night.  The sky will clear and temperatures will drop into the 30s.

The forecast for Wednesday is tricky.  One guidance model, the GFS, is forecasting a fair day with highs in the 40s.  This is assuming the cold front will push far away to the south and east of New England.  However, the European Model has the cold front moving through Connecticut on Wednesday along with a wave of low pressure.  In that case, we would have more rain on Wednesday, at least for part of the day.  We will keep you updated!

Chief Meteorologist Bruce DePrest with Scot Haney

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OCTOBER RECAP…

The 10th month of the year was rather impressive, here is a look at some of the headlines (for the official climate reporting stations in Connecticut):

  • At Windsor Locks, with 8.77” of rain (4.40” surplus for the month), the 31 days go down as the 5th wettest October since records have been kept.  Bridgeport ends the month at 4th place with 7.37” of rain (3.73” surplus or October).
  • For meteorological autumn, September 1st to now, the surplus at Windsor Locks now stands at 2.77” while for Bridgeport it is 1.98”, which is quite a swing from about a week ago when a moderate drought was declared for much of the state!
  • With regard to temperature, with an average of 59.9° at Windsor Locks, the month goes down as the warmest since records have been kept!  Bridgeport, with an average of 62.4° also goes down as the warmest!

NOAA’s WINTER OUTLOOK…

Forecasters from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center recently issued their outlook for the upcoming winter season (December, January, and February).

They are predicting a weak, but potentially short-lived La Nina in the Pacific Ocean, that could still have a big impact on the winter season.  For New England, odds favor a warmer than normal winter.  However, forecasters are only committing to “equal chances” when it comes to precipitation.  There are no strong signals pointing toward a wet winter and no strong signals pointing toward a dry winter.  It could go either way.  This forecast in no way predicts how much snow we could potentially get.  We must keep in mind La Nina is only one factor that can shape the winter season.  There other factors that could influence winter weather, such as the Arctic Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and Madden-Julian Oscillation.  Some of these are short term events, which are difficult to predict more than one or two weeks in advance. 

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