Showers will be around, scattered in variety, this afternoon. It will also be quite mild with temperatures rising well into the 50s compliments of a strengthening southerly flow. The steady/heavier rain arrives overnight, and is done by daybreak Wednesday as a front moves offshore. In advance of the front, the wind increases out of the south… gusts could go to 35-45 mph tonight.
Wednesday/Thursday both still look to be quiet weather days, but trending a bit cooler (highs tomorrow will be achieved in the morning, dropping from the 50s into the 40s). Late Friday, and into the weekend: there is still a chance for some precip, but the uncertainty is high regarding type, intensity and how much (if any) could add up. It will be all about the development and tracks of low pressure, how close they come to Southern New England. Stay tuned!
Meteorologist Mark Dixon
A WET, BUT MILD TODAY
We can expect occasional rain throughout the day today. Plus, a southerly breeze will intensify in advance of a cold front that's going to be moving through the state later tonight. That southerly breeze will send temperatures rising into the 50s today!
Periods of rain are likely tonight along with a few downpours. A rumble of thunder can’t be ruled out in some communities. The strong southerly breeze will hold temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s this evening. Temperatures will fall back into the 40s before dawn after the cold front moves through the state.
The cold front will quickly move away to the east of Connecticut tomorrow morning and weather conditions will rapidly improve. Rain will end early in the morning and the sky will become partly to mostly sunny. A northwesterly to westerly breeze will usher in cooler air throughout the day. Gusts to over 20 mph are likely. Early morning highs will range from 50-55, but temperatures will settle back through the 40s during the afternoon.
The mercury will dip into the 30s, and then into the 20s tomorrow night under a mainly clear sky. The wind will subside.
Overall, Thursday is going to be a pretty nice day. While the cold front will stall offshore, a westerly or southwesterly flow will keep us dry and seasonably chilly. We can expect a partly sunny, to perhaps a mostly sunny, breezy day! The air will be seasonably chilly with highs in the low to middle 40s.
Temperatures will fall into the upper teens and 20s Thursday night under a clear to partly cloudy sky.
A high amplitude trough will develop over the Eastern United States, while a portion of the polar vortex breaks off and settles into the Northern Great Lakes Region. That means more changes in the weather are on the way. Most of Friday should be dry and cold. We are forecasting a partly to mostly cloudy sky and highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Snow showers are possible later in the day, but they could hold off until Friday night.
The first in a series of offshore storms could start to impact Southern New England Friday night. The guidance models are suggesting most of the development will occur well offshore, but there may be just enough energy closer to the coast to bring a period of light snow. At this point, we are not expecting a lot of snow, but there may be enough to whiten the ground or produce a minor accumulation. Temperatures will bottom out in the 20s to near 30 degrees.
A COLD WEEKEND WITH SNOW POSSIBLE…
Several disturbances will rotate around the deep trough of low pressure over the Eastern United States. How everything aligns remains to be seen since the guidance models are not in complete agreement with the evolution of this system. For now, it looks like the first disturbance will depart Saturday morning. If that is indeed the case, snow will end Saturday morning, then the sky will partially clear. The air will be cold with highs in the mid to upper 30s.
The next disturbance aloft could be much stronger and that means the associated coastal storm will be stronger as well. If the track and intensification occurs close enough to the coast, we could have enough snow to plow and shovel Saturday night and Sunday. We won’t get too specific just yet, but this is something we’ll be monitoring closely throughout the week. It is just too early to be sure how this ocean storm will impact Southern New England. If my timing is correct, any snow that falls on Sunday should end during the afternoon and we might even see some late day clearing. It will likely be a cold, blustery day with highs in the 30s at best.
EARLY NEXT WEEK…
The high amplitude trough will lift away to the north and east of New England Sunday night and Monday and that means weather conditions will improve. Therefore, we expect Monday to be a fair day with partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s.
Beyond Monday and through the middle of December, the weather pattern will be volatile with several outbreaks of cold air and also several chances for snow.
Chief Meteorologist Bruce DePrest with Scot Haney
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November went into the record books as a dry cold month. The average temperature at Bradley International Airport in Windsor Locks came in at 40.4 degrees, which is 2.0 degrees colder than normal. The highest temperature was 77 degrees on the 3rd and the lowest temperature was 19 degrees on the 11th. Precipitation was well below normal. Only 1.04” of rain was measured at the airport and that is 2.85” below normal. There was only a trace of snow in November. Normal snowfall for the month is 2.0”.
The 10th month of the year was rather impressive, here is a look at some of the headlines (for the official climate reporting stations in Connecticut):
NOAA’s WINTER OUTLOOK…
Forecasters from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center recently issued their outlook for the upcoming winter season (December, January, and February).
They are predicting a weak, but potentially short-lived La Nina in the Pacific Ocean, that could still have a big impact on the winter season. For New England, odds favor a warmer than normal winter. However, forecasters are only committing to “equal chances” when it comes to precipitation. There are no strong signals pointing toward a wet winter and no strong signals pointing toward a dry winter. It could go either way. This forecast in no way predicts how much snow we could potentially get. We must keep in mind La Nina is only one factor that can shape the winter season. There other factors that could influence winter weather, such as the Arctic Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and Madden-Julian Oscillation. Some of these are short term events, which are difficult to predict more than one or two weeks in advance.
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