Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon - WFSB 3 Connecticut

Technical Discussion

Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon

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HARTFORD, CT (WFSB) -

NOON UPDATE:

While there are a few storms to the north of Connecticut at this hour, there's nothing here in our state at the time.  The potential for Severe Weather exists anytime after 2 or 3 pm.  We've got sunny skies out there along with warming and humid conditions.  When a cold front approaches the state later this afternoon, tapping into the moist and humid air, that's when the storms are expected to take place.  Read on for more. 

A POTENTIALLY STORMY DAY TODAY…

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has placed a good  portion of Connecticut in an “enhanced” risk area for severe thunderstorms this afternoon.  There is the potential for strong to damaging winds, torrential downpours, hail, and frequent cloud to ground lightning, which is always a big danger.  An isolated tornado or 2 can't be ruled out.  The window of time for the severe threat is mostly between 3pm and 8pm.  The storms will reach the Northwest Hills first and they will move rapidly across the state from northwest to southeast.  The risk of severe weather is lower in Southeastern Connecticut, but it can’t be ruled out.

Prior to these storms, it's going to be a fairly nice day.  The sky will become partly sunny this morning and temperatures will warm into the 70s and lower 80s this afternoon. The air will turn more humid as well and this will increase the moisture available for heavy downpours this afternoon.  There is a chance for localized flash flooding, but hopefully the rapid speed of the storms will reduce that threat.

The risk of severe weather should be over after 8pm.

WEDNESDAY…

Tomorrow will be a cooler day, but how much sun we’ll see will greatly depend on a push of drier air associated with high pressure to our north.  For now, we are forecasting mostly cloudy skies and highs in the mid to upper 60s.  It should be a dry day, but some light rain is possible near the coast.

THURSDAY…

Thursday will be a much better day with partly sunny skies and highs around 80 degrees away from the coast.  An onshore breeze will keep shoreline highs in the 60s and 70s.

FRIDAY…

This is a tough forecast!  A warm front and abundant moisture will move up the coast toward Connecticut, but high pressure and dry air will be poised to our north.  At this point, we expect moisture to our south to slowly advance northward into Connecticut as the day progresses.  Therefore, we are forecasting a mostly cloudy day with developing showers.  Temperatures could stay in the 60s thanks to a northeasterly flow.

THE WEEKEND…

The threat for showers will continue and we may have to deal with a few thunderstorms at some point.  The air will turn progressively warmer and more humid.  Saturday’s highs will greatly depend on the progress of the warm front.  For now, we are forecasting highs near 70, but it could be a lot warmer than that in the afternoon if the warm front moves through and a south to southwesterly flow develops.  There is a good chance we’ll be in the warm, humid air on Sunday.  Temperatures could reach or even exceed 80 degrees with enough sunshine.  Dew point temperatures could rise well into the 60s.

EARLY NEXT WEEK…

Any unsettled weather should clear the state by Monday.  In fact, it could be a very nice day with partly sunny skies and highs 80-85.

Chief Meteorologist Bruce DePrest with Scot Haney

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