12:45 PM UPDATE...
Rain is spreading northward across Connecticut at this time. Portions of Southern and Southwestern Connecticut have already been soaked with more than a half an inch of rain today. Rainfall is up to 0.55" in Stratford. Much of the state will get at least some rain this afternoon and it will be locally heavy. Clouds, rain, and northeasterly wind will likely keep temperatures in the 70s. A few locations in Northern Connecticut could see highs closer to 80 degrees. Rain/showers will continue, off and on, through tonight and tomorrow as well. There is even a chance for a thunderstorm. Very localized flash flooding remains possible.
Chief Meteorologist Bruce DePrest
Today and Tomorrow
Wet weather will continue occasionally this week. A slow-moving weather pattern will slow up the flow of weather systems across the Continental U.S. and, thus, an area of low pressure situated in the upper levels of the atmosphere over the Northeast will stay close by through tomorrow. Therefore, showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast for today and tomorrow. There could be some locally heavy rainfall both days. The air will turn a little warmer and a lot more humid, especially tomorrow. We are forecasting highs in the lower 80s today and middle 80s tomorrow.
Wednesday through Friday
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday won’t be as wet; however, there will be a daily chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. A southwesterly flow and “ridging” (high pressure) in the upper levels of the atmosphere will limit the atmosphere’s ability to make showers and thunderstorms. The air will be humid and temperatures will continue to rise. We are forecasting highs 85-90 on Wednesday and 90 degrees or higher Thursday. With clouds covering more of the sky Friday, temperatures will back off a bit, likely staying in the 80s. Even though the upper levels will not be supportive of organized showers and thunderstorms, a few rogue storms may fire in the heat and humidity.
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
Saturday will likely be wet as a new area of low pressure moves across New England. The models are suggesting that there will be an ample supply of moisture and warmth, making for a very muggy, tropical day. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will occur as this system passes over the state, offering ample “lift” for cloud and rain production.
Finally, we think the wet pattern will break Sunday as the low pressure system(s) move away and high pressure starts to take control. It may take most of Sunday to lose the cloud cover, but it will be a positive trend toward a more settled atmosphere.
THE 3RD HEAT WAVE OF 2018 ENDS AT DAY 5
The heat wave began last Sunday when the temperature reached 91 degrees at Bradley International Airport. The high on Monday was 93 degrees. The heat wave became official Tuesday when the temperature reached 93 degrees. The high was 91 degrees on Wednesday and 90 degrees Thursday. Therefore, the heat wave lasted a total of 5 days.
NOAA RELEASED THEIR UPDATED HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST
The forecast has been revised downward due to a high probability of a developing El Nino in the Pacific. This will likely suppress tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin during the latter part of the season. Plus, sea surface temperatures remain much cooler than average in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea. Tropical storms and hurricanes need warm water to maintain strength or intensify. A combination of stronger wind shear, drier air, and greater stability in the atmosphere could further suppress tropical storms and hurricanes.
NOAA is now forecasting 9-13 tropical storms (average 12), of which 4-7 will become hurricanes (average 6), and 0-2 will become major hurricanes (average 3). The forecast at the beginning of the season was calling for 10-16 tropical storms, 5-9 hurricanes, and 1-4 major hurricanes.
We’ve already had 4 named storms this season, including 2 hurricanes. They are Alberto, Beryl, Chris, and Debby. The hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. We are now entering the peak of the hurricane season, from August through October.
Meteorologist Mike Cameron with Scot Haney
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