Good Saturday evening!

What a beautiful weekend so far, and it's only going to get better! Saturday morning's temperatures were the coldest so far this season. Statewide, the mercury fell below freezing. High pressure provided the chilly conditions overnight, but will also be responsible for some warmer changes heading our way. Additionally, this high will keep us dry this weekend, which is big news. Over the last 6 weekends, we received some sort of precip, either rain or snow. That streak will end this weekend, you can expect completely dry conditions. It's almost like the months of October and November have reversed themselves. October was cloudy, cold, and even snowy. Looking at the forecast now, the immediate future in November will be warm, quiet, and dry.

Tonight will be chilly, but not as cold. Most locations will stay above the freezing mark. High pressure will work off the coast and a broad westerly flow will develop. This will push warmer temperatures into the northeast. Sunday will be mostly sunny again, but highs will climb well above average. The weather will be great for the Veteran's Day Parade in Downtown Hartford. The temperature should be around 60 for the start, and afternoon highs will climb into the mid 60s! That's about 10 degrees above average.

Next week will feature a mild start with temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70 on Monday. It will also be mostly sunny. Tuesday will still be mild, with highs in the 60s, but clouds will increase through the day. A cold front will be pushing into the northeast. This is where things get a little complicated. Tropical Storm Ida has steadily gained strength and has maximum winds now at 70mph. Ida is moving toward the north, and will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico. Ida is forecasted to become a hurricane, and could make landfall near Louisiana on or around Tuesday. The intensity and position of Ida could affect our weather here in the northeast. Some moisture from Ida could feed into the cold front that will pass through the northeast late on Tuesday into Wednesday. Behind this front, blustery and more seasonably cool air will arrive for Veteran's Day. High pressure will then build in for more quiet weather the rest of the week into next weekend.

Have a great rest of the weekend.

Meteorologist Curtis Grevenitz

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Connecticut's Past Weather By The Numbers Month By Month

October 2009
October went into the record books as a cool, wet month. The average temperature at Bradley International Airport was 50.4 degrees, which is 1.5 degrees cooler than normal. We had 4.86" of rain, which is 0.92" above normal. There was also a trace of snow.

September 2009
September went into the record books as a cool, dry month. The average temperature at Bradley International Airport was 62.1 degrees, which is below normal (the 30 year average) by 1.1 degrees. Plus, we only had 1.78" of rain at the airport. A normal September sees 4.13". Thus, we had a deficit for the month of 2.35".

August 2009
The month of August has gone into the record books as a drier than normal month. Total rainfall was 2.85" at Bradley International Airport, compared to the normal August rainfall of 3.98" (thus, we have a deficit of 1.13" for the month). When it comes to 2009, we're still ahead of normal by nearly 3.5".

August was also warmer than normal with an average temperature of 73.2 degrees. A normal August has an average temperature of 71.6 degrees. Thus, this month was 1.6 degrees warmer than normal thanks in large part to a 7 day heat wave (from the 15th through the 21st) and a total of 9 days with a high temperature of at least 90 degrees. The hottest temperature of the month was 94 degrees on the 17th. August stood out like a sore thumb when compared to June and July, which were 2 very wet months without any 90 degree heat.

July 2009
July was even more extreme. It was the 2nd wettest July on record with a total of 11.17" of rain, plus it was 3.5 degrees cooler than normal! That means the meteorological summer, which consists of June, July, and August, was overall much wetter and much cooler than normal.

June 2009
June was wetter than normal by 2.42" with a total of 6.27" and it was cooler than normal by 2.2 degrees.

May 2009
May 2009 was a cooler than normal and drier than normal month. The average temperature at Bradley International was 59.0 degrees, which was 0.9 degrees below normal. The highest temperature was 89 degrees on the 21st and 22nd. The lowest temperature was a record 34 degrees on the 19th. Total rainfall was 3.43”, which was 0.96” below normal. Although May was a dry month, there were 15 days with overcast skies and 20 days with at least some measurable rainfall.

April 2009
April 2009 went into the record books as a mild and drier than normal month. The average temperature at Bradley International Airport was 50.9 degrees, which is exactly 2.0 degrees above normal. The monthly rainfall total was 3.37”, which is 0.49” below normal.

March 2009
March 2009 was not a bad month at all. It was dry with only 2.59” of precipitation at Bradley International Airport. That includes rain plus the water equivalent of any snow and ice. Normal March precipitation is 3.88”, which means we have a deficit for the month of 1.29”. Snowfall was exactly normal with a total of 8.0” and all of it fell on March 1st and 2nd during Winter Storm Demi. The average temperature was 37.6 degrees, which is cooler than normal by only 0.4 degrees. The normal March average temperature is exactly 38.0 degrees.

February 2009
February 2009 was a dry month and it was milder than normal. Total precipitation was only 1.30”. This includes the water equivalent of any snow and ice. Normal precipitation for February is 2.96”. Thus, there was a deficit of 1.66”. Snowfall didn’t amount to much either. 3.9” of snow fell at Bradley International Airport, which was 6.8” below normal. The average temperature was 30.3 degrees, which was 1.5 degrees above normal.

January 2009
January 2009 was a very interesting month. First of all, it went into the record books as a cold month with an average temperature of about 21.3 degrees at Bradley International. That is 4.4 degrees colder than normal! The mercury dipped below zero 4 times this month with the coldest reading of -3 on the 16th and 17th. The mildest temperature was 42 degrees on the 23rd. It seemed like January was a stormy month, but it was actually drier than normal month. How about that! Total precipitation (including snow and ice melted down) was 2.90”, which is 0.94” below normal. Total monthly snowfall was 12.9”, which is 1.4” below normal.

2008
2008 was an amazing year in Northern Connecticut since it was the wettest year on record and records date back more that 100 years! Total precipitation at Bradley International Airport was 65.43”. That includes rain plus the water equivalent of any snow and ice. Normal precipitation for a year is 46.16”. Thus, 2008 was wetter than normal by 19.27”! The previous record was 64.55” in 1972. Other years that had more than 60” of precipitation were 1955 with 62.94”, 1938 with 61.63”, and 1920 with 60.96”.

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Back in May, NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) issued a forecast that called for 9-14 named storms, 4-7 hurricanes of which 1-3 hurricanes would be major (category 3, 4, or 5). Recently, the forecast has been revised downward. NOAA is now forecasting 7-11 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes, and 1-2 major hurricanes. A normal season has 11 named storms. One major reason for the revised forecast is El Nino! There is a developing El Nino (unusually warm water) in the Pacific Ocean and it is already having an impact on upper level winds across the tropics. According to Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “El Niño produces stronger upper-level westerly winds over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean, which help to reduce hurricane activity by blowing away the tops of growing thunderstorm clouds that would normally lead to tropical storms.”

It should be noted that even in a below average season, in terms of the number of hurricanes, all it takes is one major hurricane strike in the United States to make it a bad or even devastating season. The peak of the hurricane season still lies ahead and you can count on the Early Warning Forecast Team to keep you updated throughout.

FYI…Since 1950 there have been nine years that have had two tornadoes, and now eight years (including '09) with three tornadoes, and four years with four tornadoes. It may be hard to believe but we have had one year (2002) with five tornadoes and in 1973 we had an amazing 8 tornadoes in our state!

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The hurricane season officially began on June 1st, but the first tropical depression of the season formed in the Western Atlantic in late May! Even though the tropical season begins June 1st, the riskiest months for Connecticut are not until the later months of the summer, August, and September. The last hurricane to cross Connecticut’s shoreline was Hurricane Gloria on September 27, 1985. However, Hurricane Bob brought hurricane conditions to the state on August 19, 1991 even though the eye crossed the shores of Rhode Island.

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The following is a list of the names of the full moon throughout the year: “Wolf” moon in January, “Snow” moon in February, “Worm” moon in March, “Pink” moon in April, “Flower” moon in May, “Strawberry” moon in June, “Buck” moon in July, “Sturgeon” moon in August, “Corn” moon in September, “Harvest” moon in October, “Beaver” moon in November, “Cold” moon in December.