SHOWERS & T’STORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
We may have thunderstorms tonight. Right now, thunderstorms are occurring in Upstate New York, where there is also a severe thunderstorm warning. As decaying versions of these thunderstorms over Upstate New York march closer, they may present a chance for showers and thunderstorms into the evening and overnight hours here, especially after 10 PM.
At this point, we are thinking that, given the loss of the sunlight, there will be a decreasing supply of energy that should keep most of the storms below severe limits. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the western-most part of the state within an area of lowest grades of probability for severe weather, so we cannot ignore their wisdom. We will be keeping a close eye on these storms as they cross from New York into Connecticut.
These showers and thunderstorms will have left by morning. In their wake, humid, warm air will follow.
Warm & Unsettled Monday
Monday will be sometimes unsettled and warm. In fact, highs may exceed 80 degrees during the afternoon. A storm system will track to the north of New England. As does so, it first may send a line of showers through the state during the morning. Once these rains have passed, a strong south to southwesterly flow will continue to pump unseasonably warm air into the state. This southwesterly flow will be responsible for the 80+ degree warmth away from Long Island Sound. In fact, it could be the warmest day since October 10th of last year when the high was 85° at Bradley International Airport! With the strong onshore breeze, temperatures should stay in the 70s at the coast.
A cold front will pass through the state Monday evening. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but most of the energy with the system will remain to our north. Nevertheless, we are keeping our eye on this situation, since there will be adequate instability for a few stronger thunderstorms here in Connecticut. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted all the state to be within the marginal to slight-grade probability for severe thunderstorms. Gusty wind and a few hailstones would be the primary “severe weather” risks from the storms.
After the front passes through, a drier and somewhat cooler northwesterly flow will develop Monday night. Temperatures should dip into the range of 55-60.
Cooler Tuesday and Wednesday
Tuesday will be mostly sunny and mild with highs in the low and mid-70s with a strong northwesterly breeze.
Wednesday should start out sunny and cool, then clouds may spread over the state during the afternoon. A few showers could arrive by evening. Highs will be in the 70s.
End of week matters
There may be a lingering shower or two Thursday morning. Otherwise, the rest of the day should be partly sunny and breezy with highs in the upper 70s. There may be rain again for the 11th Friday in a row as a warm front passes through the state with clouds and a few showers. Another system may bring rain Saturday, then Sunday could prove quite warm, as a cool front passes through, toning down the humidity while the actual pool of cool air remains delayed. We might experience highs in the middle and even upper 80s that day!
Have a great weekend!
Meteorologist Mike Cameron
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