Sunny today, then expect more wet weather...

 

AFTERNOON UPDATE...As expected, the day started out in the upper 20s and lower 30s inland (milder along the shoreline). After some very early morning sunshine, clouds arrived and they're here to stay. During the afternoon, temperatures in many towns will reach or just exceed 50... a little below the average high of 57 for the first day of November. While most of the day will be dry, parts of western/northwest CT may experience an isolated shower. Initially, while echos will show up on radar, we're so dry at the surface that it will take some time before rain reaches the ground.Tomorrow, after some early morning showers we expect partial clearing and for temperatures to peak in the 60s, at least 10 degrees warmer than today. Friday will be warmer... with enough sunshine, temperatures reach 70 or higher. We can't rule out some showers as a cold front moves through the region, sending temperatures this weekend back into the 50s for highs.Meteorologist Mark Dixon ---------------------------------------------OCTOBER RECAP… What a month it was --- here is a look at some of the headlines…Here are the numbers for the official climate reporting stations in Connecticut: At Windsor Locks, with 8.77” of rain (4.40” surplus for the month), the 31 days go down as the 5th wettest October since records have been kept. Bridgeport ends the month at 4th place with 7.37” of rain (3.73” surplus or October). For meteorological autumn, September 1st to now, the surplus at Windsor Locks now stands at 2.77” while for Bridgeport it is 1.98”… quite a swing from about a week ago when a moderate drought was declared for much of the state! With regard to temperature, with an average of 59.9° at Windsor Locks, the month goes down as the warmest since records have been kept! Bridgeport, with an average of 62.4° also goes down as the warmest! While it's dry out there right now, runoff from recent heavy rain is causing the Connecticut River to swell. As of 4am this morning, minor flooding is likely in Hartford as the stage is 16.8'. Flood stage is 16.0', so we're just a bit above there. In Middletown, we're at 6.9'. Flood stage is 7.0'. The river is expected to drop below flood stage over the next 24 to 36 hours.THIS MORNING…The wind is fairly calm and it's cold out there! With plenty of dry air in place decent radiational cooling has taken place. We're experiencing lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s --- that’s why a Frost Advisory is in effect, as the growing season has yet to end in many towns. Along the shoreline, lows are in the upper 30s.TOMORROW…After a chilly and bright start to this day, clouds will be on the increase. Those clouds are in association with milder air heading in our direction. Initially they’ll be of the higher-level variety, filtering the sun… then, they’ll lower and thicken later in the day. Temperatures will reach the mid-50s. While the day will be dry, we can’t rule out some isolated showers tonight. THE END OF THE WEEK…Tomorrow, a shower will be possible in the morning; otherwise, the day will likely feature more clouds than sunshine. It will be much milder with highs in the mid-60s compliments of a southwesterly flow. Friday, temperatures will be even warmer as they peak near 70 if not higher (very much dependent sunshine). As a cold front moves through the region, an isolated shower will be possible as we close out the week. THE WEEKEND…In the wake of Friday’s cold front, temperatures will trend a bit cooler… more in line with what is typical for early November. Also, we’ll get to enjoy dry and brighter weather over the first half of the weekend. Sunday may be a bit unsettled with the chance for showers. NEXT WEEK…As of now, Monday looks to bring our next chance for widespread rain as a storm system moves into the region. It exits by Tuesday morning allowing for a mix of sun and clouds.Meteorologist Mark Dixon with Scot HaneyNOAA’s WINTER OUTLOOK…Forecasters from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center recently issued their outlook for the upcoming winter season (December, January, and February).They are predicting a weak, but potentially short-lived La Nina in the Pacific Ocean, that could still have a big impact on the winter season. For New England, odds favor a warmer than normal winter. However, forecasters are only committing to “equal chances” when it comes to precipitation. There are no strong signals pointing toward a wet winter and no strong signals pointing toward a dry winter. It could go either way. This forecast in no way predicts how much snow we could potentially get. We must keep in mind La Nina is only one factor that can shape the winter season. There other factors that could influence winter weather, such as the Arctic Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and Madden-Julian Oscillation. Some of these are short term events, which are difficult to predict more than one or two weeks in advance. “Copyright 2017 WFSB (Meredith Corporation). All rights reserved”

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